82%. And That Number Isn't a Coincidence.

CJ McCollum sat in front of a postgame mic Saturday night after the worst game of his series — 17 points, 0-for-4 from three, 19 turnovers as a team — and said this:

"If you'd told us before the series started we'd be 2-2 going back to the Garden... life's not so bad."

That's not a man in crisis. That's a man who's played 71 playoff games telling you exactly what's about to happen.

I was 78% yesterday. I'm raising it to 82.

Here's why that specific number matters: the winner of Game 5 in a 2-2 series goes on to win the series 82% of the time. That's not a vibe. That's 194 out of 238 series in NBA history. The Hawks are one win from controlling an 82% destiny.

And CJ McCollum is about to give it to them.

The receipt: McCollum lost Game 1 at MSG — scored 26 but the Hawks fell 113-102. Next game? He dropped 32, hit the go-ahead jumper with 34 seconds left, and the Hawks stole it 107-106. The Knicks had been 40-1 in postseason history leading by 12-plus after three quarters. McCollum made them 40-2.

Game 3: 23 points, fadeaway game-winner with 12.5 seconds left.

Game 4: 17 points, 0-for-4 from deep.

You see the pattern. Bad game, big game, big game, bad game. Tonight is a bounce-back spot. McCollum's entire career is built on not staying down. He dropped 41 on the Warriors in Game 1 of the 2017 first round — a career playoff high when everyone expected Portland to fold. He put up 38 in an elimination game against the Pelicans in 2018 when the Blazers were on the brink of a sweep. The man's wiring doesn't allow him to go quietly.

The Knicks found something in Game 4 — Hart and Alvarado trapped McCollum, forced him left, turned the Hawks into a turnover machine. They combined for 7 steals. It worked. Once.

But CJ McCollum has been getting adjusted to for 13 years. The adjustment to the adjustment is what he does. Hart's got quick feet. McCollum's got 71 playoff games of muscle memory. I'll take the reps.

Here's my prediction: Hawks win Game 5. McCollum scores 25 or more. The series comes back to State Farm on Thursday with Atlanta up 3-2 and the Garden in its feelings.

Jalen Johnson is averaging 19.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists this series. He said the Knicks "punked" them in Game 4. Good. JJ doesn't forget that. Nickeil Alexander-Walker — your Most Improved Player, 20.8 points per game this season, franchise-record 251 threes — hasn't had his breakout playoff game yet. It's coming.

The Knicks are 6.5-point favorites. The models give them 74% win probability. The home team in a 2-2 Game 5 wins 73% of the time.

The Hawks already won at MSG in this series. They erased a 12-point deficit in the fourth quarter to do it. The Garden isn't a fortress. It's a building. And this team has already proven it can take it.

82%. Same number as the history. Same number as my confidence.

Bookmark this. Come back Wednesday.