Atlanta Is Guaranteed One Home Game

Atlanta is not promised two home games. It is promised one.

Game 3 is Tuesday at Truist Park no matter what. Game 4 is Wednesday at Truist Park only if the series is alive. That is what is on the table tonight at Dodger Stadium. Not a pennant. A second night in Georgia.

Here is the part that is not flattering: Wednesday is more likely than not, and that is the best thing I can say about it.

Los Angeles has to win tonight and again Tuesday in Atlanta to take Wednesday off the calendar. ESPN's model gave the Dodgers 66.7% for tonight alone as of midday, and in late August Atlanta beat them three straight at Truist Park by one run. Two in a row is a real ask. I am not leaning on that history, though, because Atlanta's three runs in Game 1 came on two swings.

I'm not selling comfort: I'm the one who wrote that this team inherited primetime instead of earning it. Game 1 was no fluke. Los Angeles 5, Atlanta 3, and all five runs came on home runs by Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy. Neither Shohei Ohtani nor Freddie Freeman drove in a run. Freeman scored one; somebody else had to drive him in. A team that won 100 games does not need its two most famous hitters to beat you.

Ellis already called Atlanta's regular-season record against Los Angeles the least useful true number in this series. He's right. The useful number is three of four, and exactly one of the four is guaranteed to be in Georgia.

So no, 0-1 is not a death certificate. It is also not two home games, and anyone who has circled Wednesday is watching a different series than I am.