Photo by Beyond My Ken, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia CommonsAtlanta's Problem Isn't Philadelphia
Atlanta went 9-4 against Philadelphia this season and 3-4 against Arizona. Only one of those clubs is probably walking into Truist Park.
Yesterday I asked for Philadelphia. The sentence I got wrong was the other one: "Arizona does not scare me either."
Philadelphia lost at home last night, Tampa Bay 12, Philadelphia 1, and it vindicates nothing. Read what I actually wrote: "Not because they are the worst team left. They are not." Three runs and a home run in one inning out of Aaron Nola is a bad Saturday, not a scouting report.
One night tells you nothing. That is the flaw in wanting a specific opponent in the last week of September.
A season tells you plenty.
Atlanta went 9-4 against Philadelphia. Atlanta went 3-4 against Arizona, and Arizona took two of three at Truist Park in August -- the building where Atlanta hosts on Tuesday.
So the club with the winning record against Atlanta is the club Atlanta probably is not going to play.
Probably. ESPN's tracker: "If D-backs win and Phillies lose: D-backs get in." Arizona needs both. Philadelphia needs either one.
And the man who would have to deliver Arizona's half is Michael Soroka, their listed probable this afternoon, who made 43 starts for Atlanta across four seasons. Baseball does not write subtler than that.
I put a number on this round yesterday. A blowout in Philadelphia is not a reason to move it.
I also printed my own losing branch: if Philadelphia settled its spot Saturday and held Wheeler back for the opener, I lose before first pitch. They did not settle it. Wheeler is this afternoon's listed probable. That branch never opened.
I asked for the right team yesterday. I gave the wrong reason for not fearing the other one.
The Tilt
Arizona is the club Atlanta should fear, and probably the one it will not play.
— Dex Ponce
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I had the wrong suspect. Not the whole file. The file was clean. I asked for Philadelphia and I would ask again tomorrow, because nine and four across a season is not a hunch, it is a paper trail, and a man does not apologize for reading his own handwriting. It was the other sentence. The throwaway. I said Arizona did not scare me, and I said it the way a man calls a street safe because nobody ever jumped him on it. Three and four. That is what Atlanta did against them. And in August they walked into Truist Park and took two of three in the same building where this club hosts on Tuesday. I watched it and I filed it under nothing. Philadelphia lost at home last night, Tampa Bay 12 and Philadelphia 1, and it proves exactly nothing. One night is an alibi, not a motive. I wrote that down yesterday and I am not about to start believing my own luck this morning. So here is the shape of the thing. The club with the winning record against Atlanta is probably the club Atlanta does not get. Probably. That word is carrying the whole case and it does not clock out until this afternoon. One of them needs two things to fall its way. The other needs only one. Nobody has counted anything yet. And the arm that would have to carry Arizona's half is Michael Soroka. Forty-three starts in Atlanta's uniform across four seasons. This city taught him the trade, and he is the one who would have to work the lock. First pitch is ten past three. Ponce is quiet and the lamps are still on. Whoever walks into Truist Park on Tuesday, the name in my notebook is mine: I gave the right answer for the wrong reason, and the reason is the part they grade. Case open.
Dex's register tolerates comedy better than the day's other pieces, but the comic formats fail on the specifics rather than the tone. A limerick has to land a punchline, and every available punchline either names who is coming to Truist Park (barred - nothing about this afternoon may read as resolved) or bends a record to scan; remixer.md forbids changing the number to fit the meter, and the two records in play (Atlanta 9-4 against Philadelphia, 3-4 against Arizona) invert into falsehoods the moment they are compressed into a rhyme. Deadpan is allocated to Ellis's game report, where there is an event to under-react to; Dex's piece has no event, only a read. Noir keeps the self-implication, which is the actual content - he asked for the right team and gave the wrong reason for not fearing the other one - and its natural ending is an open case rather than a verdict. Accuracy: no confidence percentage (his device is off today by voice-bible rule); no claim about any season series between Arizona and Philadelphia and no tiebreaker mechanism at all; the branch is rendered only as one club needing two things and the other needing one, with 'nobody has counted anything yet'; Soroka's 43 starts across four seasons for Atlanta are as published; the 12-1 result in Philadelphia is stated flatly and explicitly proves nothing, per the source; no quoted speech.
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