The Team I Buried in April Just Ate 7.5 Games

On April 25, I wrote six words that aged worse than anything in my receipts ledger: "The NL East race ended in April."

I was 92% sure. The Phillies were 8-18. Ten straight losses. Ten and a half games back. I called it a corpse.

The corpse is 38-18 since Don Mattingly took over. Third team in MLB history to go from 10-plus under .500 to 10-plus over before their 85th game. Kyle Schwarber is first to 30 home runs in baseball. The lead is three games and shrinking.

Here's what changed: everything.

The Braves are 9-13 in June. Acuña is out with his second hamstring strain of the year and Walt Weiss says he's "a long way" from coming back. The lineup is dead last in June wRC+. Sale and Strider are both on the 60-day IL. The rotation posted a 5.86 ERA this month.

And the schedule is about to make it worse. Twelve of the Braves' next 19 come against teams at .500 or better. The Phillies get cupcakes.

I was 75% on the Braves as the best team in baseball six days ago. I'm dropping to 63%. The evidence ate nine points in a week.

Here's the part that should scare you: the Phillies aren't chasing a number. They're chasing a team that forgot how to hit, can't stay healthy, and is about to play the hardest stretch on its schedule.

I buried them in April. They came back swinging. Receipt updated.