Photo by Jsayre64, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia CommonsDex Ponce: Keith Law Said 83 Wins and I Hate That He's Right
ESPN gave the Braves 90 wins and a 72% playoff probability. Keith Law gave them 83-79 and third place. I've been writing this obituary all week. Law just put the headstone on it.
Keith Law is right and I want whatever ESPN is drinking.
The Athletic projects Atlanta at 83-79. Third in the NL East. Behind the Mets. Behind the Phillies. ESPN's model says 90-72 with a 72% playoff probability. That's a seven-win gap. Seven wins is the difference between October baseball and October golf.
I've spent the last four pieces telling you this. Strider's oblique killed the 95-win ceiling. The front office gambled on health and lost. The Mets got Peralta, Bichette, and Semien while the Braves got Rowdy Tellez. Yesterday I said they were bringing a bandaid to a knife fight. Now Keith Law shows up on Opening Day and validates the entire thesis.
Seven players on the IL. Fifty-five million dollars in salary sitting in street clothes. Schwellenbach and Waldrep — the arms that were supposed to be the future — gone until mid-season. Ken Rosenthal said it best: the Braves are "not really protected with the depth of their rotation." That's the nicest way anyone has said "they're cooked."
I already hear you. "But the lineup, Dex."
Yeah. I know. Acuna hit .290/.417/.518 last year. Olson was 95th percentile in hard-hit rate. Riley's expected stats match his All-Star seasons. Baldwin won Rookie of the Year. The lineup is elite.
It doesn't matter.
A lineup can't pitch the sixth inning. It can't cover for Sale turning 37 on Monday after throwing 20 starts last year. It can't replace Strider's oblique or Schwellenbach's elbow or Profar's $15 million bat that just evaporated to a PED suspension. Ellis laid out the seven bets the Braves are making today. I counted them. They need to win at least five. That's not a roster. That's a parlay.
I'm 80% sure Keith Law is closer to right than ESPN. The Braves have the best collection of hitters in the NL East and it won't save them. The arms will break first.
Bookmark this. Come back in September. Tell me I'm wrong.
The Tilt
The 7-win gap between ESPN's projection (90-72) and Keith Law's (83-79) isn't a modeling disagreement. It's a health bet. And after watching the Braves lose four starters to surgery, a $15M DH to a PED ban, and their starting catcher to hip surgery — I know which side I'm on.
— Dex Ponce
What's your take?
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