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Photo by Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons5.7 Is the Laziest Number in the NFL
ESPN looked at the Falcons and averaged two completely different teams into one number. That's not a projection — that's a spreadsheet shrugging.
5.7 is the laziest number in the NFL.
ESPN's projection model looked at the Falcons and did what every model does when it doesn't know what to do: it split the difference. That's not analysis. That's a coin flip in a spreadsheet.
Here's what 5.7 actually is. It's the average of two completely different teams.
Team A has Kevin Stefanski, who took a 6-10 Cleveland roster and went 11-5 in Year One. Coach of the Year. First playoff win in 26 years. This franchise did the exact same thing in 2008 — total overhaul, 4-12 to 11-5. Team A has Bijan Robinson in a wide-zone scheme built for him. The 4th-easiest schedule in the NFL. A kid named Zachariah Branch who nobody projected and who's been the best player at camp.
Team A wins nine games.
Team B lost both edge rushers before the season started. Franchise-record 57 sacks, gone. Tua's concussion history isn't a question mark — it's a countdown. I said in July neither QB finishes the season. Nothing since has moved me.
Team B wins four.
The models averaged them and printed 5.7. That's not a projection. That's surrender.
One of these teams shows up in September. Miles did the homework on why the models are wrong. I'm telling you they didn't even try.
Bookmark this.
The Tilt
5.7 is a coin flip in a spreadsheet. The models didn't even try.
— Dex Ponce
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