Holmes Before Pérez

Grant Holmes starts before Martín Pérez in October. The walks decide it.

Atlanta 6, Houston 3 at Daikin Park. Holmes: six innings, eight hits, two runs, no walks, 87 pitches. He left trailing 2-1, and Ronald Acuña Jr.'s grand slam made him the winner.

Mark Bowman of MLB.com has Chris Sale in Game 1, Tyler Mahle, 1.28 in eight Atlanta starts by Ellis's count, in Game 2, and then this, Saturday: "The opponent could influence whether Pérez or Holmes is chosen to start Game 3." His projection, not the club's. With Bryce Elder (right knee surgery) and Reynaldo López (right shoulder inflammation) on the injured list, it is one of those two.

Season ERA, per MLB: Pérez 3.07, Holmes 3.47. Pérez wins that. Walks per nine: Pérez 3.92, Holmes 3.60. Last five starts by the game log: Holmes 24 innings, seven earned, five walks. Pérez 26 1/3, eight earned, 15 walks. Nearly the same runs, three times the walks.

Pérez has a case. Baseball-Reference's FIPs run his way, 4.25 to Holmes's 4.69 through Friday, and he is the left-hander of the two, which is what an opponent clause means. If the opponent's lineup says left-hander, I lose on that.

One September start is one start. Tonight was Holmes's first of six or more innings without a walk this year, by the game log. It does not make him better than Pérez over a season. It makes him the arm I want when one walk can be the series. On Aug. 4 I wrote up his six scoreless against Miami. Drake Baldwin first, Matt Olson third, the card held.

The receipt is the club's first postseason starter after Sale and Mahle, Wild Card Series Game 3 if it goes three, a Division Series start if Atlanta gets that far. Wrong if it is Pérez, and I say so the day the club says it. The name is Holmes.