I Checked the Compliment

The case for Atlanta this morning came from Los Angeles, and the number carrying it does not check out.

The Los Angeles Times ran nine concerns the Dodgers should have about the club they open against at four o'clock. Kevin Baxter wrote it. One line does the arguing: "The Braves also led the majors with a 24-9 record against left-handed starters; the Dodgers figure to start two left-handers in the division series."

So I counted the games. Atlanta went 33-25 in the 58 games an opposing left-hander started against it, and that same count produces the 94-68 everyone agrees on. 24-9 does not come back under any reading I tested.

Here is the part that bites harder than the correction. 33-25 sounds like an edge. It is Atlanta's own baseline with a different pitcher on the mound, and one game out of 58 separates it from what Atlanta did against right-handers. Corrected, the receipt stops being proof of anything.

That is not a swing at the piece. I checked seventeen numbers in it and fifteen are exact to the digit, including the .196/.281/.299 the Dodgers hit against Atlanta pitching, which I ran back through the six box scores. One line fails. It is the line doing the work.

Tarik Skubal is posted for Game 1 and he is left-handed, so the question the Times asked is the right question. Ellis answered it with at-bats instead of a team split, which is the cleanest thing I can say today. Tilt got to the same place on at-bats, and at-bats do not evaporate when a split fails a check.

I said it Friday. A preview that agrees with me is not a reason to restate it, and I am still not pricing this series.

Take the argument. Leave the number.