I Got the Homers Exactly Backwards

I was right about Atlanta's offense and wrong about what would cover for it. The second one is why the season is over.

Start with the receipt I keep. On October 3 I published Four Hits Is What No Edge Looks Like, because a number that flattered this lineup against left-handers hadn't survived a check. Four hits was what no edge looked like.

Tonight Atlanta had three.

The series: 18 hits in 124 at-bats. A .145 average. Eight runs in four games. Thirty-nine strikeouts. Four hits was not the floor. Four hits was a good night.

Now the receipt I have to eat.

October 4, Atlanta Circled Wednesday For Me. The line was "Atlanta doesn't need the home run anymore and Los Angeles still does."

Atlanta hit zero home runs in Games 2, 3 and 4. Both series homers came in Game 1, before I wrote that. Los Angeles's last run of Atlanta's season was a Max Muncy home run in the ninth.

I had it exactly backwards, and the scoreboard spent three straight games telling me so.

Here is what the miss was, because "I was wrong" is not an explanation. I watched Atlanta win Game 2 three to two without a home run, and I turned one night of situational hitting into an offensive identity. It was never an identity. It was one night. A team that cannot slug has to execute perfectly every night. Nobody does that for a week in October.

Tyler Mahle gave this team 6.1 innings and one earned run tonight. That is a winning start in any month. Atlanta scored once, on a groundout, in the first, and then never again.

I asked for the right problem on October 3. I named the wrong solution on October 4. The second one mattered.