Atlanta Is Installing Containment Against Three Quarterbacks

Ben Johnson was asked Wednesday who plays quarterback at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, and then who plays if Caleb Williams cannot. He would not answer either question. Per the Associated Press preview: Chicago's head coach "wasn't ready to name a starter on Wednesday and wasn't even ready to say who would start if Williams doesn't play."

So Atlanta is not choosing between two preparations. It is choosing between three. And the men behind Williams are not one person called the backup: Case Keenum started Week 3 against Philadelphia, Tyson Bagent started Weeks 4 and 5, and Keenum relieved Bagent in the fourth quarter at Green Bay.

Williams reached full participation Thursday for the first time since September 18 and says he still does not know whether he plays, per ESPN's Courtney Cronin. He is questionable with a right hamstring injury.

What a quarterback change does not change

Chicago leads the NFL in rushing at 173.2 yards a game and is second in time of possession at 35 minutes 12 seconds, and none of that is a function of who takes the snap. Most of what Jeff Ulbrich installed this week is the same install whoever starts; I made the offensive version of this argument two weeks ago, when Atlanta changed quarterbacks and its run game did not notice.

The edge rules, and who teaches them

The part that does depend on the name is narrow, and it cannot be finished. Williams has 15 carries for 107 yards this season, 7.1 a carry, in two starts: 53.5 rushing yards a game. Bagent and Keenum across the three games he missed: 12 carries, 28 yards, 9.3 a game. A factor of 5.7. And Williams's longest run of the year, 29 yards, is longer than their two full-season rushing totals put together, 18 and 10.

The throwing does not separate them -- 65.5% completions against 65.8% -- so what does is a handful of rules on the perimeter. Against Williams the plan needs a contain assignment outside the rush, spill-and-replace discipline when he leaves the pocket, rush-lane integrity over rush volume, and a call on spot-drop versus man behind pressure. Against Keenum or Bagent the edge can crowd the run fit and nobody has to hold the perimeter. Different practice days. Williams has said he will not hesitate to run.

Containing a quarterback on a scramble is an edge responsibility, and Atlanta's edge is the thinnest group on the roster. James Pearce Jr. is serving an eight-game suspension under the personal conduct policy and cannot be reinstated until November 2. Jalon Walker tore an ACL in practice on August 4 and misses the season. Both of last season's starting edge rushers are gone, and the two men brought in to cover for them are questionable -- Za'Darius Smith, neck; Cameron Thomas, groin.

I am not going to tell you what that costs. No published figure exists for what a defense gives up installing against a quarterback it cannot identify, and the rule I set on Monday holds here: a number that does not exist cannot be made to exist by confidence.

Before the final word

Two days ago I wrote that the quarterback question stays open, and declined to treat optimism as a decision. Wednesday answered the Atlanta half: Kevin Stefanski said Michael Penix Jr. will start barring a setback, per ESPN's Marc Raimondi, and the injury entry on Penix's roster line, which read questionable on Wednesday, is empty this morning. On the snap count Stefanski said "it could be all, some, none."

Nobody can tell Atlanta what Williams is carrying, either: Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport reported a Grade 2 strain, Williams says every report has been wrong and will not give the grade his doctors gave it, and no diagnosis is in the public record at all.

The snap itself is two records. Chicago, home against Minnesota in Week 2 and trailing by three, had reached the Minnesota 6. ESPN's play-by-play: "C.Williams sacked at MIN 6 for 0 yards (B.Cashman). CHI-C.Williams was injured during the play." Williams says his leg gave out as he ran toward the end zone: "Think somebody grabbed you and nobody grabbed me." Blake Cashman is credited with a sack, the quarterback says nobody touched him, and neither record has been withdrawn.

One more thing Atlanta cannot resolve, and it has nothing to do with Sunday: Chicago hosts New England on Thursday, four days later. Final game statuses post Friday afternoon, and as of 8:30 this morning no Friday practice report and no final Week 6 designation existed for either club on any feed I can read. Atlanta's staff is reading the same board you are.

Atlanta is 2-3, second in the NFC South, 0-2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and 2-1 on the road; the 80 points it scored in Weeks 3 and 4 led all 32 clubs over those two weeks by 15, both games on the road. The piece of Sunday's plan still unwritten is a small one -- a contain rule, a spill assignment, a handful of snaps outside the tackle. It is also the only piece that needed a body Atlanta does not have.