Lopez Is Not Tonight's Problem

The story everybody files today is that Atlanta are gambling on an arm that has not pitched since July. That story is wrong, and the pitch count proves it.

Reynaldo Lopez has not thrown a major-league pitch in 45 days. He threw 93 of them six days ago.

September 3, Triple-A Gwinnett: five scoreless innings, six strikeouts, two hits. That was the third rehab start of a build that ran 50 pitches, then 70, then 93. Nobody is converting him into anything, either — he made six straight starts before the left knee stopped him, 28.0 innings and a 3.86 ERA across them. He is listed for tonight, not announced: MLB Trade Rumors reported the activation Monday night and ESPN carries him as the probable, but the league's own feed had not posted it this morning. Write that part in pencil.

So if Lopez is not the thing to worry about at 7:15, what is?

One run.

On Monday I wrote: "Today is not the easy one. Today is game one of ten." Two of the ten are gone. Phillies 1, Braves 0 in Philadelphia. Rays 7, Braves 1 at Truist Park. Atlanta have scored one run inside the stretch I said would measure them, and tonight Tampa Bay list Griffin Jax, who has started 19 of his 30 appearances and carries a 3.82 ERA on the season.

The other half of that piece landed on Tuesday. I said the number that mattered was not the starter's ERA. "It is how early the bullpen phone rings, with nine days stacked behind it." It rang in the fourth. AJ Smith-Shawver got 10 outs; the bullpen covered 5.2 innings.

Here is what two nights do not change. "I have been at 62% on Atlanta's October window since August 25." It stays there tonight, and not out of stubbornness: the reason it was never higher was this offense. One run in two games is not new information. It is old information arriving on schedule. Atlanta still lead the East by 4.0 and sit 3.0 back of the Dodgers with equal games played and 17 to play. Losing a bye is not losing October.

If this one gets away, it will not be the 93 pitches. It will be the one run. Bookmark that.