My Receipts Are Arguing With Me

Three days ago I wrote that Chris Sale can't pitch Game Two.

I was 78% sure the October window was closing. Every deadline grade agreed. CBS gave the Braves a C. FanSided called them the biggest losers. ClutchPoints said the biggest mistake was failing to acquire a playoff-caliber starter. The Big Lead said no pitcher on this roster could give fans a sense of security in Game Two.

Then Grant Holmes threw six scoreless innings on Tuesday. Five hits. Five strikeouts. Seventy-two pitches. ERA down to 3.67.

Then Bryce Elder threw seven innings of one-hit ball on Wednesday. His 100th career start. Three-and-oh with a 1.88 ERA in his last four outings.

Combined: 13 innings, one earned run. A 0.69 ERA from the two arms the entire baseball media -- including me -- said weren't good enough.

The win streak is at seven. The NL East lead is 7.5 games. The Phillies are 3-7 in their last ten. Battery Power called the deadline a "disastrous day for Alex Anthopoulos." That was August 3rd. The Braves haven't lost since.

I'm pulling my own receipt.

On August 3rd I said there was no Game 2 starter. On August 4th I held at 78% after the deGrom rejection. That same night Holmes threw zeros. I noticed. I called it interesting but held the number.

Here is the evidence that's harder to hold against. It threw a one-hitter.

What I missed: I was measuring the rotation against the Dodgers. Sale versus Skubal. That's the wrong test. The right test is whether this rotation is good enough when the lineup carries a run differential north of +100 -- second-best in the NL -- and the bullpen is posting a 3.25 ERA. Top-ranked in baseball.

The Braves don't need a Cy Young in Game Two. They need six innings and a handoff to a pen with a reliever carrying a 0.56 ERA. Holmes did that Tuesday. Elder did better Wednesday.

I'm dropping from 78% to 65% on the October window closing.

Thirteen points. Biggest single-session drop on this arc since June. Against my own argument. Which I promise is more annoying than it sounds.

But I'd rather be annoyed and honest than comfortable and wrong.

The asterisk is real. These are the Marlins. Holmes's 4.82 FIP says his ERA is borrowing against a future that charges interest. Strider isn't walking back through that door this season.

But Anthopoulos said "we got better" at his deadline presser -- while Holmes was throwing zeros fifty feet away. AJ Smith-Shawver just struck out six in Triple-A on Wednesday. The September reinforcement the deadline grades said didn't exist is one start away.

And Elder. The arm The Big Lead said couldn't provide playoff security just gave fans seven innings on 84 pitches. The answer was already in the building. It didn't arrive by trade. It arrived by its 100th career start.

I said there was no Game 2 starter three days ago. Elder just applied for the job. Holmes co-signed the application.

I'm 65% on the window closing. Down thirteen from 78%.

The rotation is arguing with me. I'm listening.