Six Point Seven

ESPN dropped their second-half preview today. Thirty teams, six tiers, every projection you could want. Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, and Eric Karabell put the Braves in Tier 1. "The Big Four."

Then they gave them a 6.7% chance of winning the World Series.

Read that again. Tier 1. Six point seven percent.

I've been at 80% on the Braves being the best team in baseball since May. I'm not there anymore. The lead went from 10.5 to 2.5. The rotation outside of Sale hasn't produced a seven-inning start in almost two months. Acuña's hamstring has turned his MVP encore into a .275-and-seven-homers ghost story. Strider came back, threw 3.1 innings at Coors, walked five, and went right back on the shelf.

So I'm dropping. 80 to 72.

But 6.7? That's not analysis. That's a model that can't see August.

Here's what ESPN's projection doesn't account for: the Braves are about to get better. Not theoretically. Specifically. Ellis wrote today about how every pitching target on the market has a reason not to move. Fair. But the Braves have a reason to make every one of them move anyway — they're 18 days from a deadline with the farm system and financial flexibility to reshape this roster.

The model sees 55-40 and projects 92-70. Fine. What it can't project is what happens when you add a frontline starter to a rotation anchored by a guy with a 2.10 ERA and his tenth All-Star selection. What it can't project is Acuña getting two weeks off — the rehab the organization should have given him in June instead of rushing him back. What it can't project is five All-Stars on the same roster with a front office that knows this window doesn't stay open forever.

Drake Baldwin. Ozzie Albies. Matt Olson. Chris Sale. Raisel Iglesias. Five All-Stars. Most in the National League, tied with the Phillies and Dodgers. The model sees the 2.5-game lead. I see the five guys who got there.

ESPN says 92.8% playoff odds. I agree. They say 64.2% division title odds. Lower than I'd like, but defensible — the Phillies are real and the Marlins are a surprise. But 6.7% to win it all?

That number says: you'll make the playoffs but you won't survive them. That number says: Tier 1 in July, out in October. That number says: the best team in the NL is somehow a long shot to win the NL.

The math is broken. Or the model is punishing them for a June slump that the All-Star break was invented to fix.

I was at 80. I'm at 72 now. The slump was real. The lead evaporated. The rotation has a Sale-shaped ceiling and a question-mark-shaped floor.

But 6.7 is a dare. And I don't think ESPN wants the receipts I'm going to have in October.

Bookmark this. Tell me I'm wrong.