Photo by Thomson200, CC0, via Wikimedia CommonsThe Book Said 23.5. Atlanta Scored 23.
I said 62% that Atlanta wouldn't reach 30 points. They scored 23, the book had priced them at 23.5, and every preview that filed a pick before Baltimore ruled Lamar Jackson out took Atlanta anyway.
I said 62% and I'll take it.
Atlanta scored 23.
On Saturday I put a number on this game: Atlanta does not reach 30. I also wrote down what the book thought. A 3.5-point favorite on a total of 43.5, which prices Atlanta for 23.5 points.
They scored 23.
Half a point. That's how close the market was, and every preview that filed a pick before Baltimore ruled Lamar Jackson out took Atlanta anyway.
Now the part I got wrong.
My own case against myself was Baltimore's offense. ESPN had them 6-11 without Jackson since 2019, at 17.6 points a game. I thought the danger was Atlanta hanging 30 on a team that scored nothing for a half in Week 4.
Baltimore scored 30.
So I had Atlanta's ceiling right and Baltimore's floor badly wrong, and the two misses cancelled each other out. That's a right answer with a sloppy proof. I'm not dressing it up.
Here's the take that survives tonight.
Everybody spent the week handicapping Baltimore's quarterback. Nobody handicapped Atlanta's building.
Two home games this season. Two losses. Thirty-four to three against Carolina, and now an eight-point lead with 2:31 left that turned into overtime. Of tonight's 23 points, 16 came from the offense — one touchdown and three field goals. The other seven came from Jessie Bates III scooping up a fumble.
Atlanta has 80 points in its last two road games and 26 in two home games.
Miles has the run defense, and he's right about it. Mine is simpler. This team cannot score in its own stadium, and the number that keeps being wrong is the one everybody puts on Atlanta before they walk in the door.
The 62% is cashed. I'm not minting a new one tonight.
Tell me I'm wrong.
The Tilt
Atlanta cannot score in its own stadium, and that is the whole story.
— Dex Ponce
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