The Nickel Problem Weighs 180 Pounds

The depth chart the Falcons published before their first preseason game, on August 14, listed the nickel this way: Darnay Holmes first, Avieon Terrell second, A.J. Woods and Mike Ford Jr. behind them. The chart for the preseason finale, on August 25, read exactly the same. Holmes is now on the practice squad.

Nobody in Flowery Branch announced a change. They did not have to. Eight days and one cutdown after that second chart, the veteran listed ahead of a 21-year-old second-round rookie at the position offenses attack most is off the 53 and the rookie is on it.

Ian Cunningham's first draft class came through cutdowns intact. Seven rookies made the 53 — Terrell, receiver Zachariah Branch, linebackers Kendal Daniels and Harold Perkins Jr., tackle Ethan Onianwa, and undrafted free agents Jack Strand and Malcolm DeWalt IV. An eighth, defensive tackle Anterio Thompson, is on the non-football injury list, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The AJC's Daniel Flick projects at least four into extensive Week 1 snaps — his projection, not an announcement. Atlanta has published no regular-season depth chart at any position, quarterback included.

What the slot actually asks

Per Cody Alexander's June charting at MatchQuarters, the Falcons were a below-average nickel team last season — under the 38% league mark. Alexander has them in Cover 3 on nearly half of base downs and about a third of nickel downs, with Cover 2 under 3%. Roughly 75% of base downs, by his count, were a binary Cover 3-or-Quarters choice. His phrase for it: eliminating variance.

That is one analyst's charting, not league data. But it describes something coherent: Jeff Ulbrich's early-down menu gives the man in the slot fewer ways to be wrong. Eyes on the concept, drive on what breaks underneath, and rarely run down the field alone with a bigger receiver.

The reason was size

Alexander's explanation for the suppressed nickel rate is mass. He lists Billy Bowman Jr. at 5-10 and 200 pounds; Bowman missed much of last season, and his replacement weighed 175. That deficit pushed Atlanta into more base personnel just as offenses moved the other way: Alexander charts league-wide nickel snaps down 16% and base usage up from roughly 23% in 2024 to over 27% in 2025.

Ulbrich would rather not make that trade. In New York his defense played nickel on 82% of early downs in 2023, and 67% in 2024, when he had injuries at the position.

The appetite is real. Size suppressed it. The 2026 answer is a rookie ESPN lists at 5-11 and 180 pounds.

The evaluation is the scheme

The Falcons' own draft-day story quoted Daniel Jeremiah's pre-draft evaluation for NFL Network, and Jeremiah hedged neither half of it. Terrell "projects best as a nickel at the next level," with "excellent eyes and closing speed in underneath zone coverage." Then: "He isn't as effective on the outside, where his lack of size shows up on go balls, and he'll get walled off on slants by bigger-bodied receivers." The conclusion was an ideal nickel starter on Day 1.

Read that against Alexander's charting and the fit stops looking accidental. The skill Jeremiah praises is what a Cover 3 or Quarters assignment converts into production. The flaw he names is what 12-personnel offenses exist to produce: bigger bodies, condensed splits, slants into a rookie's inside shoulder.

Ulbrich's low-variance menu may not be a limitation this season. It may be the accommodation.

What the rush owes him

Jeremiah also called Terrell a stellar blitzer, and the Clemson line supports it: 3 sacks and 5 forced fumbles in 2025, an ACC lead in the latter. Three sacks from a corner is a usage number.

Pressure from the slot is a loan taken against the four-man rush, and Tilt's cutdown-day reporting established that Atlanta's is short both of last season's rookie edge wins — James Pearce Jr. suspended eight games, Jalon Walker's year ended by an August 4 ACL. The claims Atlanta made when waivers cleared did not replace them: Yasir Abdullah arrives on a special-teams background, Jared Ivey on 15 career defensive snaps, and to fit them Atlanta waived Zach Harrison, who had 8.5 sacks in three seasons here. Sending Terrell vacates the coverage he was drafted to play, and a rookie slot corner is a far better bet at three seconds than at five.

Everything is provisional

Branch is the smaller version of the same sentence: manufactured touches, per the AJC, are an offense putting a player on the field before deciding what he is.

Sunday, September 13, 1 p.m. ET on FOX, at Acrisure Stadium, on the road. Cunningham's class made the roster, then forced its way into the plan. What it has not been handed is a plan anyone will say out loud. The nickel, the return job, the linebacker rotation and the quarterback are all officially undecided. Eleven days is a long time to sit on that many cards and a short time to learn to play them.