Third Is More Settled Than First

Matt Olson batting third is the most settled thing about Atlanta's October lineup, and I am the one who told you it was Baldwin.

Olson's 40th came in the ninth with Drake Baldwin on second after a leadoff double, and Atlanta 6, Houston 2 was the final. On Tuesday I wrote Baldwin leads off in October. Friday's top three was Tuesday's, Baldwin, Ronald Acuña Jr., Olson, and Baldwin scored twice on homers by the two behind him.

The strike against me first. On Wednesday at Wrigley Field, Acuña led off and Baldwin hit second, no injury posted. My tripwire, never printed, was two of those. That was one. Baldwin has led off 17 of 23 since Aug. 25, eight games left.

Olson's spot is clean. Third every game since Sept. 8, and in 129 of the 154 he has started, all of them. The 40 homers rank third in the National League behind Kyle Schwarber's 45 and Pete Crow-Armstrong's 44, per MLB's feed and ESPN.

The number you were going to throw at me: a .533 OPS from Aug. 8 through Sept. 9, by the game log. Real. So is the .977 since Sept. 10, three homers in eight games. I carry the rest: a .737 postseason OPS in 19 games and 4-for-16 with no extra-base hit in the 2023 Division Series, by the same feed. That is the case for fifth. Not nothing.

It is also not what the lineup did. It moved him to fourth twice during the .533, and back. It is not moving him during the .977.

MLB's standings feed marked the berth clinched Friday night, the one Ellis laid out this morning. The first October lineup posts Sept. 29 if Atlanta is in the Wild Card round, where MLB.com's Mark Bowman has Chris Sale lined up for Game 1. Baldwin first has one strike. Olson third has none. I grade both the morning after it posts.