Photo by Bryan Berlin, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia CommonsEntre Líneas
Atlanta United go to Inter Miami tomorrow night and not one of the four clubs they have to climb over will be on that pitch. What is actually riding on the night is harder to name, and it is not nothing.
A week is a long time in football when nothing happens inside it.
Atlanta United last played on Saturday August 29. They play again tomorrow night. In between: seven days of training with nothing at the end of them to measure it against.
Tomorrow will not measure it either. Not in the way the table understands.
Atlanta go to Nu Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET, away to Inter Miami. On Thursday I built this stretch around the two clubs standing between Atlanta United and the playoff line - Orlando City at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Wednesday, then D.C. United at Audi Field. Those two matches are the climb itself.
Tomorrow is not. Inter Miami are second in the Eastern Conference on 42 points, 21 clear of Atlanta, and Lionel Messi captains them. They are not in the race Atlanta are running.
### The four clubs are somewhere else tomorrow
The positional case for tomorrow is thin. Here it is in full.
Three points at Nu Stadium count what three points count anywhere. Atlanta have 21 from 22 matches. The last playoff place belongs to Orlando City on 25, with Toronto FC and D.C. United level on points and Philadelphia a point back. Four points, four clubs to pass, 12 matches to do it in.
Look at who else plays tomorrow. There are 14 MLS matches on the card. Orlando host San Diego. D.C. are at Cincinnati. Philadelphia host CF Montreal. Toronto host Chicago. All four clubs between Atlanta and the line are settling their own business, and not one of them is doing it against Atlanta.
A win closes the gap on nobody. A defeat opens it on nobody. Tomorrow produces a result Atlanta cannot spend.
### The pessimism is earned
Football Whispers predict Inter Miami 4, Atlanta United 1, and price the home win at 1.37 - an implied probability near 73%.
That is not disrespect and I will not dress it up as disrespect. It is arithmetic. Atlanta have scored 25 goals in 22 matches, the fewest in the Eastern Conference, at a goal difference of minus-13. And Inter Miami are the best team left on this schedule - Nashville do not appear on it again, so nobody left on Atlanta's fixture list is stronger than the side they face tomorrow.
I am also on record. After the Charlotte defeat I wrote that this squad handles the bottom half of the conference and comes apart against the top of it. Miami are the top of it, and I do not get to withdraw that because the fixture arrived.
### The results, stated flat
Inter Miami have won once in their last five.
August 2, drew 2-2 at home with Columbus. August 16, lost 4-1 at Nashville. August 19, drew 2-2 at Philadelphia. August 22, lost 1-2 at home to Toronto, who sit 10th. August 29, beat CF Montreal 7-1.
Those are facts. They are not an argument. Variance is a property Inter Miami have; punishing it is a capability Atlanta do not. This is a side whose third-most creative player is a left-back - Elías Baez, four assists - and whose August winning run was 2-1, 2-1 and 2-1 before Charlotte ended it. Atlanta win narrowly or not at all.
### The paperwork cleared. The calendar did not.
One thing genuinely changed this week. The club confirmed on Thursday that Breel Embolo's visa is sorted and league approval is in, that he is cleared to train and to appear, and that he trained with the group. He has still never played a league match for Atlanta United.
On Thursday I wrote that anything said about this squad before Friday was guessing in public. Friday is here. The league's availability report lists Embolo out, not due to injury. It lists Mauricio Amaro out as well - the midfielder signed at the start of August, whose own visa cleared this week. Luke Brennan is out with an ankle, Jay Fortune with a hamstring.
Chris Henderson, the club's sporting director, met the media on Thursday as the Secondary Transfer Window closed; the club puts the ledger at five in and eight out.
Eligible and available are different words. Tomorrow is the one night this season when that difference costs Atlanta nothing.
### October 17
The fixture list says something nobody has read out loud.
Atlanta play Inter Miami twice more. Tomorrow at Nu Stadium, and again on Saturday October 17 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The same opponent, 42 days apart, in two entirely different seasons - one where the result is worth only its own weight, one where the table will have decided what it is worth.
Ninth place is worth less than people assume, and it is still the only thing left on the table.
### Entre líneas
So what is tomorrow?
A draw at Nu Stadium would be the first evidence that this team can do the thing I said on Thursday it cannot - leave a hard evening with something in hand. It would also move Atlanta one point and past nobody. Both are true at once, and the distance between them is the whole night.
Four days after it, Orlando City walk into Mercedes-Benz Stadium. That one counts.
Entre líneas - between the lines. Everything tomorrow is worth is written there. None of it is written in the table.
The Tilt
A win at Miami is worth nothing in the table and everything four days before Orlando.
— Santi "Tito" Avondale
What's your take?
Santi "Tito" Avondale
Matchday & momentum — global football POV, emotional arcs.