I Owe You a Winner

Atlanta wins this series. That is the pick. It is smaller than the one I was carrying.

Four pieces on this matchup. Two corrected the piece before, one Sunday morning, one Sunday night. Not one named a winner.

Sunday night I moved to 68% on this round and gave one pitch count all ten of those points. One arm is not worth ten points. Here is the whole thing.

A 94-68 club against an 88-74 club is a 53.8% favorite in a single game. The 30 clubs went .529 at home this season, so Truist Park is worth about three more points. That is 56.6% a game. First to two at that rate wins the series 60% of the time.

No model, no market. That one is mine.

What holds it up is not the standings. Philadelphia went 31-38 against clubs over .500. Atlanta went 43-29. Run differential, +116 to +15. Five of Philadelphia's 88 wins are not in their run column. Atlanta is 4-0 in Chris Sale's four starts against them this year, 2.08 across 26 innings.

Why it is not higher. Philadelphia struck out more hitters (1,577) and threw more shutouts (19) than any club in baseball. Atlanta reached base at .309. One of those shutouts was against Atlanta on September 7, one start, nine innings, 12 strikeouts, Philadelphia 1, Atlanta 0.

Then the format. A best-of-three hands back four points of an edge this size, and more of a bigger one. Neither team arrived hot, Atlanta 10-10 over its last 20 and Philadelphia 8-12. Philadelphia won the last one in this building on September 13, Philadelphia 9, Atlanta 4.

60% is what is left standing. Not a brave number. The one I can still defend if Atlanta loses this afternoon.