Six Clubs Are Already Past a Perfect Atlanta Run-In

Fafa Picault put a penalty into the bottom right corner in the 89th minute on Saturday, and that was Atlanta United's entire evening in front of goal. Twenty attempts inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium. One goal, from twelve yards, half an hour after the match stopped being a question.

Nothing from open play. In their own building.

What those twenty attempts were made of is already written -- twenty-six crosses, four of which reached a teammate. The open-play zero is the figure I left out.

### What Saturday actually cost

Three points, and a club.

Thirty points from 30 matches. Four left, 12 available, a ceiling of 42.

On Friday that ceiling was 45, and I wrote then that five Eastern clubs were already guaranteed to finish above Atlanta. It is six now: Nashville 67, Inter Miami 55, New England 52, Chicago 48, Charlotte 47, Philadelphia Union 46. Two numbers moved over the weekend in opposite directions, and the Union and the ceiling crossed.

Orlando City is the other change. Against a 45-point ceiling there was a version of this run-in where Orlando dropped points and still finished below Atlanta. Against 42 there is none: Orlando are on 41, and they have to lose all four.

That is what a home defeat costs at this end of a table: a club off the list you could still finish above, and a requirement turned into an impossibility.

### The shape of the requirement

Nine clubs qualify from each conference, per the league's own playoff release: seeds one to seven into Round One, eighth and ninth into a single Wild Card match. Decision Day is November 7.

Ninth is FC Cincinnati on 36 points from 29 matches. Six points, 12 available. On points alone, that is live.

Underneath it, no. Six clubs are locked above. CF Montreal, on 25 with a maximum of 37, is locked below. That leaves seven undecided, and Atlanta can afford two of them above -- so five have to finish on 41 or fewer. Level on points goes to total wins first, which is what makes it 41 and not 42.

From the points each of the seven can still take: Red Bull New York five of 12. FC Cincinnati five of 15. Toronto FC five of 12. Columbus Crew six of 12. New York City FC seven of 12. D.C. United eight of 15. Orlando City none of 12.

Five of those seven have to happen.

Atlanta play three of the seven. That is the only part of this they touch.

### Somebody already wrote this, with the wrong numbers

On October 14, Gameday Times at Yahoo Sports had Atlanta "nine points behind ninth-place FC Cincinnati" with "six matches remain." Five remained. Atlanta won the next one 3-0 at CF Montreal. The gap to ninth is six.

The AJC had the story. Amna Subhan's piece on October 18 is headlined "Lionel Messi dismantles Atlanta United, playoff hopes dwindle." The elimination piece has been written. Messi is in the headline; Atlanta's season is the clause after the comma.

He earned the billing: 25 goals in 27 appearances, an outright league lead with Petar Musa five back on 20.

### The club three points above

D.C. United have scored 37 goals and conceded 51 this season. So have Atlanta -- identical for, identical against, identical minus-14. D.C. sit three points above with a match in hand, off 7 wins and 12 draws against Atlanta's 8 and 6.

Atlanta have more wins than the club directly above them.

The two home three-goal defeats are not the same defeat, either. On October 10 Atlanta were level at 1-1 with FC Cincinnati, 21 minutes left, Miguel Almiron having equalised in the 69th, and the third went in at 90+7. On Saturday they were never level. One point from the last five here, and the Benz has been the worse half of this season since Wednesday.

### El silencio

Atlanta United's manager did speak. Gerardo "Tata" Martino's only sourced comments from that press conference, carried by Athlon Sports on October 18, were about the opposition's number 10: "He is, alongside Maradona, the most important player in history, based on what I myself lived and saw."

Nothing about his own club. Nothing about the four matches. The club's own recap of the night carries no quotes at all.

Chicago Fire come to Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday. Winning all four is the floor of the requirement. Five other clubs have to fall through theirs.